Thursday July 10

Welcome MoonCow! Great to see you here!

Sorry, I think people were a bit slow on the thread starting today because of all the market action!

Recognition day anyone?

Right on your turning date too. Nice call!

Yes, I prefer posting here - less conflict.

I agree about mindset. It takes effort to shift gears with precious metals after the last couple of years. I am also hoping to get short equities at some point too but still not confident with that yet.

Just bookmarked twitter/platypusfoot, love the name! 

I suppose I meant it will look like a drift higher over time, but the moves will still be short and sharp when they occur. Then the sideways action for awhile, followed by another spurt It keeps short term people trying to time the next jump, while often missing it, only to look for the next one. If it's a bull, I want to just stay long b/c can't afford to miss the best days. Look how many people at BBT hopping on today, while a good number of miners were up 7% yesterday. If they are long term holders then buying today is fine, but for timers it's a terrible move setting them up for disappointment more often than not. They can always try to anticipate the next jump, but if they haven't caught them so far I don't understand why they'll do better in the future.

Just my thoughts and how I'm going to do it. We've been in a secular bull, and now looks like we've converted to a cyclical bull as well. One good thing about a long term perspective is we don't have to dodge every little decline, and worse, miss the big days where most of the net moves are made....the rest is just meandering or drift, IMO.

Oh yeah, and welcome to Silverymoon, good to see you here!

On Tuesday, I posted the strongest names that I have been tracking. Here it is.




Some of these are new names to me but some are old names that are were beaten down and have now come back with a vengeance. My primary reason for highlighting these is that I have a rule that I can only trade stocks in an uptrend, no exceptions. Further, I will only trade on the timeframe for which the uptrend exists. So if the uptrend is just started, then it might be only on the hourly timeframe that I would trade it. That means that I set my stops based of the hourly chart. As the trend strengthens, I can then trade on longer timeframes. Anyway, these were the first stocks I found that had nice daily charts.

Now that it appears that we are shifting back into bull mode, I am looking to build a core in addition to still "trading" some stocks and ETFs. The core are stocks that I will hold and not really trade in an out of (unless the bear resumes), so they must have great fundamentals. These are usually on the smaller side because these have more upside. Some are still explorers, some are small producers. Here's a few:

Producers
Primero (an absolute rock, small producer who bought Brigus and are proving out some hi grade resources)
Argonaut (been around a while but very solid)
B2Gold (these guys are spread out in 3rd world countries but know exactly what they are doing because they have done it before)
Timmins Gold (seldom talked about but they are solid)
Avino Silver (tiny but looking to grow, they do not over extend themselves)
Sandstorm - small but well cashed up royalty streamer

I'm also in the process of researching Rio Alto, New Gold, and a few others because I've heard they are solid.

Here's some of the late stage explorers that I like:

Midas (huge resource in Colorado, FNV has a royalty with them)
Midway (several plays in Nevada, some near production, some exploration)
Premier (monster resources in several locations and will likely get bought imo)
Lydian (decent low cost resource in Armenia - I think they will also get bought)
Almaden (nice resource in Mexico)
Balmoral (Monster play being proven out in Ontario (base metals too)
Bear Creek (massive silver play in Peru - way undervalued due to political risk, which appears to be going away)

Here's a couple of tiny tiny specs that I like:
Moneta Porcupine - getting no love because they will likely need to finance soon but I they have a decent PEA and have room to grow
Terraco Gold - has royalties on a Midway/Barrick joint venture being fast tracked in Nevada. Also has a land package in Nevada next to the JV and a small resource in Idaho.

These are just a few that I am familiar with and obviously there are a lot more that are solid too. You must do your DD on every name and be aware that I have a fairly hi risk profile.

With respect to GDXJ, I only ever trade ZJG, which is the Canadian version. I find that they do get disconnected from time to time but in theory they are supposed to track their respective basket, which I believe they do.

Hope this helps!

Thanks a lot simonsays, now I've got something to work with... I never risk too much on a single name, so no need to worry on that score. I just like to get comfortable with some names to trade, and if they have decent fundamentals it makes it easier to hold ... and it seemed weird to go back to the same dozen names I was trading 3 years ago. However I've been trading AG the whole time, fairly easy to trade, but you couldn't accuse them of being a leader!

Speaking of taking off, old EXK has doubled off the lows, any views there?

I have EXK, but just based on market cap, volatility and the fact it's actively traded and already producing. Bradford Cooke CEO seems to do a decent job of communicating with the public. I try to not fall in love with any of my holdings, they are just part of a basket and that's the extent of it. On any day, some do better than others, like MUX for example is under-performing today (actually down), but was up 7% yesterday so I don't worry about individual performance in the short term. If one looked yesterday they might assume MUX was the best to buy, only to be disappointed today with it down in strong group, but the net effect is it's still up 7% or so in two days and much more than that over several months.

Unless one steps on a land mine or goes all in on one name, the group will trade together over time. In a basket over 8 names, one will stink terribly, one will get bought out at a premium more than you would think it's worth (bonus) and the other 6 will do close to what you'd expect from the group. It all smooths out over time.

A little something outside the PM's which I am keeping an eye on. UURAF, a rare earth's play, has been on my watch list for a couple of years now. I have watched patiently and I believe the weekly chart is now "extremely interesting". Upside potential is huge and the fundamentals ( for a penny stock that is!) can support an upside explosion. I doubt anything happens immediately and I would not be surprised if its still a dog a year down the line but I will be looking to take a speculative position with an initial upside above $1

Thanks for the info. I will check it out.

Here comes the whippin'?!

gapology : large & obvious gap in GDX $24.78. Tiny not-so obvious gap in GDXJ $37.54 (June 11). Also some obvious gaps in GLD and SLV. Of course they don't matter unless they do. (Q. How's that for advice? A. good enough for a newsletter, heh heh). Historically they do seem to fill, all we need to know is when ... doh!