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Post by platy on Jul 7, 2014 9:05:46 GMT -5
Hope everyone had a nice 4th. Took profit on SPX short, too chicken to hold it!
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Post by simonsays on Jul 7, 2014 10:14:43 GMT -5
Hope everyone had a nice 4th. Took profit on SPX short, too chicken to hold it! Looks like you could have held it longer but the way things have gone for the shorts lately, I can't say I blame you! |
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Post by sb on Jul 7, 2014 12:03:03 GMT -5
Markets getting a hint of deflation again? Lots of commodities down and breaking recent lows with just a hiccup in the stock market. I really like how metals are hanging in and they can go up even as commodities in general get smacked, this getting interesting. As much as I'd like precious metals and miners to go up every day, I wouldn't mind a nice shakeout in sympathy with the other commodities, it'll shake enough people out that the bull can continue on without them. There is still too much bullish talk on many forums, while the mainstream media is doing it's best to talk metals down again....something has to give in the short run.
I'm getting too involved in watching others' short term calls, time to step away and focus on managing my own thoughts. Good luck!
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Post by simonsays on Jul 7, 2014 12:07:54 GMT -5
Don't go too far SB, it's nice to have you around here!
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Post by sb on Jul 7, 2014 12:47:08 GMT -5
I'll stick around, just trying to not get too involved with the short term calls. Seeing SMTer's invested 90% long has me thinking they have to get shaken off, then guys like Poly getting long and acting as if they've been all over the move has me anticipating a slower move higher if not a pullback near term. Where were these "nimble" traders on the way down in metals, or on the way up for the last 2 years in the S&P? Seems newsletter writers like to exit trades soon after they've been taken, this way if it was up a couple percent they can pat themselves on the back, and if it was a lower they were just "protecting capital", but the net effect is they go nowhere even when markets make huge moves. This method also keeps the subs tuned in because they don't get bored and go play blackjack instead. Having another trade right around the corner keeps people from looking at the big picture (their long term P+L).
And of course, position sizing in individual holdings is the most important decision of all and none of them address this until SMT now telling us 90% invested! We aren't all going to make money, that's for sure, so the sooner we shake some off the better, IMO.
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Post by daniel on Jul 7, 2014 12:53:47 GMT -5
I'll stick around, just trying to not get too involved with the short term calls. Seeing SMTer's invested 90% long has me thinking they have to get shaken off, then guys like Poly getting long and acting as if they've been all over the move has me anticipating a slower move higher if not a pullback near term. Where were these "nimble" traders on the way down in metals, or on the way up for the last 2 years in the S&P? Seems newsletter writers like to exit trades soon after they've been taken, this way if it was up a couple percent they can pat themselves on the back, and if it was a lower they were just "protecting capital", but the net effect is they go nowhere even when markets make huge moves. This method also keeps the subs tuned in because they don't get bored and go play blackjack instead. Having another trade right around the corner keeps people from looking at the big picture (their long term P+L). And of course, position sizing in individual holdings is the most important decision of all and none of them address this until SMT now telling us 90% invested! We aren't all going to make money, that's for sure, so the sooner we shake some off the better, IMO. SMT is actually in cash!!! NO Gold investments currently! |
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Post by sb on Jul 7, 2014 12:59:35 GMT -5
I'll stick around, just trying to not get too involved with the short term calls. Seeing SMTer's invested 90% long has me thinking they have to get shaken off, then guys like Poly getting long and acting as if they've been all over the move has me anticipating a slower move higher if not a pullback near term. Where were these "nimble" traders on the way down in metals, or on the way up for the last 2 years in the S&P? Seems newsletter writers like to exit trades soon after they've been taken, this way if it was up a couple percent they can pat themselves on the back, and if it was a lower they were just "protecting capital", but the net effect is they go nowhere even when markets make huge moves. This method also keeps the subs tuned in because they don't get bored and go play blackjack instead. Having another trade right around the corner keeps people from looking at the big picture (their long term P+L). And of course, position sizing in individual holdings is the most important decision of all and none of them address this until SMT now telling us 90% invested! We aren't all going to make money, that's for sure, so the sooner we shake some off the better, IMO. SMT is actually in cash!!! NO Gold investments currently! Thanks, didn't realize that from reading the comments on this blog post: smartmoneytracker.blogspot.ca/2014/07/charts-of-day.html#comment-formGood to know, makes the short term look a little more rosy! |
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Post by simonsays on Jul 7, 2014 13:00:50 GMT -5
My personal favourite is, "i've been holding that in my personal account". So you missed the move for your subs but somehow you still caught the move.
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Post by platy on Jul 7, 2014 13:15:17 GMT -5
"We are in the position of having entered full positions [90% apparently] at the very beginning of the bull market"
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Post by sb on Jul 7, 2014 13:17:56 GMT -5
My personal favourite is, "i've been holding that in my personal account". So you missed the move for your subs but somehow you still caught the move. LMAO! Subs can't know what the self-proclaimed experts hold with all different accounts they supposedly have. |
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Post by sb on Jul 7, 2014 13:21:16 GMT -5
"We are in the position of having entered full positions [90% apparently] at the very beginning of the bull market" LOL, that's the comment I was referring to, along with the boasting of what a fat cushion they have already built in. Either he is going to have to jump off the bull and take profits too soon, or we are about to make a decent sized move lower b/c I've yet to see those type comments pay him out. |
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pkf
Junior Member
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Post by pkf on Jul 7, 2014 13:26:09 GMT -5
"We are in the position of having entered full positions [90% apparently] at the very beginning of the bull market" LOL, that's the comment I was referring to, along with the boasting of what a fat cushion they have already built in. Either he is going to have to jump off the bull and take profits too soon, or we are about to make a decent sized move lower b/c I've yet to see those type comments pay him out. If he gets it right, he'll proclaim how he got it right and if he's wrong, there is a new herd of potential subscribers in cyberland just waiting to jump on the next messianic call. Marketing is his forte and nothing else. He's got all the bases covered, whichever outcome plays itself out. |
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Post by platy on Jul 7, 2014 13:28:59 GMT -5
Daniel can you please clarify what you said above. Did he buy at the bottom and sell today? Or is he lying about holding 90% since the bottom?
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Post by daniel on Jul 7, 2014 13:29:00 GMT -5
I may be outnumbered her... but I still respect and admire Gary for his abilities!! I am a subscriber, so I will keep you updated (In a gebneral sense without giving away stuff) if some of you are unsure of current positions!
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Post by daniel on Jul 7, 2014 13:35:54 GMT -5
Daniel can you please clarify what you said above. Did he buy at the bottom and sell today? Or is he lying about holding 90% since the bottom? He did indeed get in at the bottom..He is currently out! looking to get in on a swing soon!! I many are misinterpreting him. I am unsure about the statement you are all referring to?? Sold gdx AT 25.93... UNSURE AS TO WHICH DAY!! |
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Post by platy on Jul 7, 2014 13:36:10 GMT -5
Thanks for clarifying Daniel. He must have sold today because he said in the comments last night that he was 90% in.
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Post by daniel on Jul 7, 2014 13:41:07 GMT -5
Oh I see now... you all are looking at the public blog! I understand your confusion! He did indeed enter at the bottom... as usual at times along the bull he will sidestep in order to reduce risk or in an attempt to buy in lower (like at ICL) I believe this time he was (POTENTIALLY) worried the bear MAY indeed not be over so he booked profits!! Now waiting for a DCL in the timing band to reenter!!
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Post by daniel on Jul 7, 2014 13:42:16 GMT -5
I do not follow him precisely!! so I am not necessarily good at reciting which day he bought or sold!!
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Post by platy on Jul 7, 2014 13:42:30 GMT -5
Thanks again Daniel. I hope he clears that up on the public blog because he's got us all believing he's in heavy and holding tight.
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Post by simonsays on Jul 7, 2014 13:45:09 GMT -5
Perhaps confusion is the goal! Lol
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Post by daniel on Jul 7, 2014 13:52:37 GMT -5
Yeah... even subscribers get confused! I have never understood it because he is as clear as a bell to me!! I always thought it was maybe the newbies but I think many chartists and/or EWers and/or old turkeys get frustrated with him at times!! For what I am looking for I think he does a tremendous job and very much appreciate him! it may just be me... but I have never understood all the (hate/frustration) but I guess you all know that as I would have to defend him on more than one occasion over at BBT. Not attempting to start another argument. i realize many have different views and feelings... such is life!! i just do not want it to get too vitriolic at times! God Bless everyone!!  |
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Post by simonsays on Jul 7, 2014 13:54:26 GMT -5
For the record Daniel, I do appreciate the updates, so thank you. And I really don't consider Gary any different than Poly. In my opinion, neither has traded equities or PMs well in the time that I followed them. But I certainly respect that others may feel differently or may use their reports for different things (e.g.sentiment, cycle counts, kindling for the fireplace (kidding), etc.)
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Post by daniel on Jul 7, 2014 14:08:49 GMT -5
By the way.. count me in on the group that says the Gold Bear is OVER! Something jas definitely changed! SPITZ and simonsays i think have both also called it (i do not want to speak for you but want to give you credit where credit is due) Long live the Gold BULL!!! bnot sure how it will materialize from here on out.... slow grind or nice uptrending slope??? But I think things have definitely turned the corner! Of course I have always been a staunch defender of the long term gold bull not being done yet by a lONG SHOT!!
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Post by sb on Jul 7, 2014 20:50:01 GMT -5
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Post by simonsays on Jul 7, 2014 21:55:34 GMT -5
Gary Tanashian, whose technical analysis I appreciate, has also noted the COT data as being flat out bearish. But he also admits that the charts in the PM space are bullish. Personally, I don't know what to make of the COT data because it got bearish much more quickly than usual.
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Post by sb on Jul 8, 2014 7:33:41 GMT -5
I typically ignore COT, among other things, since it wouldn't keep me invested through a bull market anyway, just presenting another guy's opinion so that I'm not overly biased.
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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 7:47:50 GMT -5
Good to know SB. I'm not a huge CoT guy either although when it lines up with other indicators I will pay attention.
For anyone focused on staying invested through a full bull cycle, I think the best guy to read is Rick Rule. He has pretty much been bang on for 3 years.
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Post by sb on Jul 8, 2014 8:04:07 GMT -5
Yep, there are a few of them. Strangely it's the long term guys with all the money, that's why I'm focused on seeing this one through. I'm holding everything and only looking to buy more into dips if and when they come, also wouldn't mind if miners and metals keep trading just like they are while the cycles guys keep scratching their heads or recounting. |
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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 8:11:20 GMT -5
Yep, there are a few of them. Strangely it's the long term guys with all the money, that's why I'm focused on seeing this one through. I'm holding everything and only looking to buy more into dips if and when they come, also wouldn't mind if miners and metals keep trading just like they are while the cycles guys keep scratching their heads or recounting. I think the other thing with the long term guys is that they focus on the individuals and mostly the late stage explorers. I don't think it is possible to get rich trading GDX and NUGT requires being extremely nimble. I agree that the big money is made by getting in the right companies and sitting there for 3-4 years. |
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Post by sb on Jul 8, 2014 8:21:25 GMT -5
not too mention there are plenty of nimble traders that don't go anywhere, or slowly go broke.
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