Thursday May 29th

I like Pretium Resources.

Larry Edelson still very bullish metals and sees this decline similarly with other people we all read.....but he sees the 1225-35 area as a good support for a rally to unfold.

LOVE LOVE LOVE silver's action here on the daily chart.

A very nice reversal on Semafo Gold.

Radar, you long silver for a bounce?

I am still long silver from 5/12 but sold calls/bought puts (strike 19). I bought one of the calls back and will probably resell one on a bounce. Keeping the positions, though.  I am accumulating positions on this pullback for a much longer term hold. I have gold positions against Aug. 1250 puts. May sell some calls on a bounce.

If NYA hits 10759 I'll add to my shorts.

Edit: Adding small amount of July SDS calls here, apparently NASA information is different from Wikipedia, Saturn orbital period is 10747.
nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/

I am going for the "jugular" so I will wait a while longer. Not saying that I will see my scenario play itself out but if I can get the VALUA Index to close above 4525.50 (currently 4450) before it closes below 4415, I will take a very aggressive short position. Keep in mind I am NOT a trader which explains why most of the time I end up waiting for the right set-up and proper risk/reward. Given the under-performance of the broader indices here (which is very bearish BTW) i expect to have the S&P somewhere in the 1935-1950 zone if/when the VALUA does fulfill the point where I will short. Although the ensuing decline may prove to be THE ONE, at least a move 65-85 S&P points should be expected, even as a trade.

Yes they do look weak. I noted last week that I had targeted the XAU 84-86 zone and although not de-facto, when the lower end of the range is broken (the 84 level), the probabilities are high that the December lows (79.73) will be broken with a likely target in the 70/75 area. Having said that, IF the lows ARE NOT broken and we turn around (I have levels that I am keeping an eye for such a reversal but are too soon to mention) then the situation will be SUPER BULLISH. I know in this business people want to hear such things as "the market is going higher" or "1000 gold is around the corner" but the fact of the matter is NO ONE knows what is going to happen so its best to let the market dictate and we do this by following the price analysis (of course each person has his or her own methods). This basically sums up my expectations for the senior averages (XAU, HUI) and will act accordingly upon any new developments.

With regards to individual stocks, there are a quite a few securities that are sporting very strong patterns (FNV and PPP are both in this category) and arguing that their respective lows are not likely to be broken. However, even a test into the low 450's for FNV for example will more than likely take the Barrick's and Goldcorps of the world into new low territory. I am and will use this weakness (if it does exasperate itself in the near future) to build stronger positions in stocks such as FNV and PPP. I am also a big fan of the longer term patterns of Corvus (KOR.to) Bear Creek Mining (BCM.v) and a relatively small royalty outfit out of Quebec called Virginia Mines (VGQ.to). VGQ is extremely illiquid and tightly held. It is sporting a nice looking chart but as always, I respect my stops.