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Post by simonsays on Jun 20, 2014 7:43:44 GMT -5
Looks like a small pullback in gold perhaps. Some miners are definitely too hot to chase but silver looks really good, especially if inflation kicks in. Overall things are setting up nicely. Alex has a new post this AM for anyone interested. www.chartfreak.com/2014/06/20/nothing-goes-straight/#more-731And yes, welcome Ole SB! Looking forward to you sharing some of your wise words. Your patience and conviction is unsurpassed.
Platy, thoughts on equities? |
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Post by SB on Jun 20, 2014 8:30:37 GMT -5
Thanks Simonsays, good to be here.
Gold and miners blew through their 200 day moving averages with such force, not to mention we'll get another golden cross of the 50 and 200 averages to the upside again before long. I'm not adding here, but would love the opportunity to buy into dips that put the stochastics into oversold territory, meaning several days drift lower after these huge rallies.
Good luck to all.
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Post by simonsays on Jun 20, 2014 8:38:48 GMT -5
Yes, nothing better than a sideways to slightly down drift to work off overbought conditions. That said, there are a few laggards out there, including AMM, SII, MAX,, MDW, and PLG to name a few. All those are TSX tickers btw.
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Post by platy on Jun 20, 2014 8:46:55 GMT -5
Platy, thoughts on equities? Equities made major turns near the summer/winter solstices last year (low, high) and I think the solstices are becoming more important, so we should be getting a major high in equities soon. Pluto resistance 1962.25. |
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Post by simonsays on Jun 20, 2014 8:51:04 GMT -5
Good to know. My NQ short has been just hanging around not gaining anything but not getting stopped out either. I would love the opportunity to build on it.
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Post by radar on Jun 20, 2014 9:18:39 GMT -5
silver new hod, and new 20 day high (bullish).
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mp
Junior Member
Posts: 77 
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Post by mp on Jun 20, 2014 14:36:26 GMT -5
So I have been analyzing the Gold chart for a few weeks now and so far my EW and indicators are at par with the move (chart 1). _ 
The price for both gold and silver is now at overbought reading and has a risk of acceleration. We would need for the indicators to turn down and out of OB to become short or bearish (Chart 2). 
If the acceleration happens, then we can look at Silver to give us a clue. Gold doesn't seem to show anything but a downside bias, and traders looking for a short could get fairly surprised if an acceleration to the upside does happen. 2 things can be noted on the Silver chart that could not be seen in Gold. First, the C-wave for Gold looks to be 5 Waves, but 3 waves for Silver. The explanation for this is brought on by 2 more possible theory. Either...
A- Silver's C-Wave is a sub-wave b (Blue). B - Gold's C-wave is a 3 wave but has a look of a 5 wave pattern but really isn't.
So lets go with the obvious which is Silver. This concludes that an A_B_C_D_E pattern is valid on a triangular basis. Most likely turning the PM markets around for another round of bearish trend.
The second thing to note here is that although Gold is forming a perfect triangular pattern (fits with a-b-c-d-e), Silver does not. Notice the downward wedge pattern for silver. A possible theory for this is labelled in Green and this theory would explain the acceleration to the upside if it does happen (chart 3). Therefore with all that said, stay long until we get a confirmation of a bearish turn, or lock in your profits and wait for the bearish turn to initiate any short trades.
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mp
Junior Member
Posts: 77
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Post by mp on Jun 20, 2014 14:36:48 GMT -5
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Post by SB on Jun 20, 2014 14:51:52 GMT -5
Not that I trade short term, but I'll go out on a limb and predict higher prices by the end of next week in GDX. The MACD finally turning up on the weekly, but more importantly, the stochastics not overbought and we had a PSAR buy signal on the weekly as well after 13 week long sell signal.
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mp
Junior Member
Posts: 77
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Post by mp on Jun 20, 2014 15:04:51 GMT -5
Not that I trade short term, but I'll go out on a limb and predict higher prices by the end of next week in GDX. The MACD finally turning up on the weekly, but more importantly, the stochastics not overbought and we had a PSAR buy signal on the weekly as well after 13 week long sell signal. This is just constructive criticism but "going out of a limb" and "predict" is counting on luck... I always have a what if scenario, and go with what gives me the best outcome.. But we all have our own trading strategies I suppose. |
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Post by simonsays on Jun 20, 2014 16:08:06 GMT -5
SB is in it for the long haul, so these weekly moves are just wiggles in his world. Whether we are up or down next week is irrelevant to his strategy I believe.
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mp
Junior Member
Posts: 77
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Post by mp on Jun 20, 2014 16:32:21 GMT -5
SB is in it for the long haul, so these weekly moves are just wiggles in his world. Whether we are up or down next week is irrelevant to his strategy I believe. The longer term in Gold as it stands is bearish. The quarterly lower BB line is at 974 and 700 target for the 75MA (not that we will get there but it is a possibility if a C-wave is extended). EWT has this as their target as well, but that was 5 years ago so I don't know if they still feel this price level of 700 - 600 is still valid. The yearly chart has a mid-point also at 726.91. This could have a throw under and hit the 700 level. So depending on the time frame:
Yearly: Bearish Quarterly: Bearish Monthly: Bearish Weekly: Bullish (Short-Term) Daily: Bullish (Short-Term) 
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Post by daniel on Jun 20, 2014 17:01:19 GMT -5
SB is in it for the long haul, so these weekly moves are just wiggles in his world. Whether we are up or down next week is irrelevant to his strategy I believe. The longer term in Gold as it stands is bearish. The quarterly lower BB line is at 974 and 700 target for the 75MA (not that we will get there but it is a possibility if a C-wave is extended). EWT has this as their target as well, but that was 5 years ago so I don't know if they still feel this price level of 700 - 600 is still valid. The yearly chart has a mid-point also at 726.91. This could have a throw under and hit the 700 level. So depending on the time frame:
Yearly: Bearish Quarterly: Bearish Monthly: Bearish Weekly: Bullish (Short-Term) Daily: Bullish (Short-Term)
SB.. (along with some of us ...including me) believe in the long term secular Gold Bull... irregardless of the last two years |
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Post by platy on Jun 20, 2014 20:55:56 GMT -5
Great work MP and good call earlier this week that gold was accelerating higher!
What would need to happen to change your longer term view to bullish?
I am personally very bullish for the next few years and I think it's possible that the bottom is in.
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mp
Junior Member
Posts: 77
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Post by mp on Jun 21, 2014 9:55:04 GMT -5
Great work MP and good call earlier this week that gold was accelerating higher! What would need to happen to change your longer term view to bullish? I am personally very bullish for the next few years and I think it's possible that the bottom is in. I have been wrong about my EW count before, but who hasn't. One thing I know is that longer term we are not in a bull market yet. The reason I say this is based just on EW patterns. If you notice after the lowest low made in June of 2013. Just right after, there seem to be a pattern that resembles a 3 wave. This suggests that this is corrective, and a new impulsive trend (BULL) cannot start with 3 waves. Also, based on the formation thus far, triangles only forms in 4th waves or B waves.
Therefore, this triangle is part of a B-wave of an ABC UP-trend or an ABCDE 4th wave Down-Trend. These are the only scenarios I have and that is why I have labelled on the longer term picture a possible draw down to 900 or 700.
On that note, my MT in gold is still bearish and of course a lagging indicator it still good for longer term sentiments or trend. Watch for weekly prices to change down and you will get a confirmation that the short-term bull market is over. The daily stochastics is important and needs to come out of overbought to change the trend as-well. 
The chart above shows what a daily trend does and a weekly trend does. A higher time frame creates a larger trend while the smaller time frame creates a smaller trend indicated by the large / small dotted arrows. This was the chart just before the plunge in gold right after the new year. 
This is the chart of Silver in which I posted on my blog April 12, 2013. I noted that the stochastics is bearish and an acceleration as it entered oversold condition. This is why I remind people that a trend will not change or be confirmed unless it is out of OB or OS. Acceleration just leave you in a far greater loss than just a correction. This was a 6pt move to the downside in 9 trading weeks, and never looked back. I am sure there were many holding this all the way down and probably thinking to themselves that it would correct back to their level so they can get out.
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mp
Junior Member
Posts: 77
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Post by mp on Jun 21, 2014 10:26:16 GMT -5
The chart above is from Jan 22, 2014 end of the week market. This move was bullish until we got a confirmation of the weekly trend CIT from the STOCH. Stochastics are laggards, but remember we do not have to get the top or bottom. We just need to be in when the confirmation has been triggered.. Long or Short. In this case, once the Stochastics crossed down, the rout was on. Why? Because the Monthly stochastics turned down in January of 2014, both becoming in sync with each other. These signals never fail and they create the most volatile price movement. More so if one of them is in OB /OS territory. Like the weekly did a few weeks later. We all know what happened there.
As for the targets I put out, 18 was great call, but of course it surpassed that range. From the top of May 2011 to the Bottom in Dec of the same year we got wave A. Projecting that distance to equal wave C, we needed a B-wave top. That would be the October 2012 high. Now labels for these can change to a 1-2 count, but the important thing to take here is whether it is a 2 or a B wave the next move down is impulsive or should be (C or 3). So a C wave can move to A=C or surpass that to 1.618% typically. Wave 3s can extend much further.
For now we can count the waves as it forms and judging from the current triangle I would say that it is forming a 4th wave of some kind. before a 5th wave lower for an end to this C wave. Hopefully... lol. |
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mp
Junior Member
Posts: 77
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Post by mp on Jun 21, 2014 10:37:38 GMT -5
As an example I will use ABX (Barrick Gold Corp.) Don't mind whether it is Gold or Miners. What we are trying to show here is how to analyse the current state of trend.
1. ABX is Bullish ST, and in OB range creating acceleration to the upside. 2. Weekly trend is UP. confirming the Bullish ST. 3. Trade the trend (ONLY UP). 4. Wait for the daily stochastics to reset to the bottom or a cross back up within the Stochastics chart. 5. If the weekly stochastics crosses down and loses its trend up while ABX is correcting on a daily. Then the trend has changed and the process has begun at the turn down of the daily stochastics.
Like GANN said, "In order to know what is happening on a daily chart, one must look to what's happening in the Weekly chart and the Monthly chart." No one really knew what he meant, but maybe I am wrong, but applying his principals on an indicator simplify things for me and clarify my way of analysis. |
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Post by platy on Jun 21, 2014 15:39:15 GMT -5
Thanks a lot MP!
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Post by platy on Jun 22, 2014 5:22:28 GMT -5
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Post by simonsays on Jun 22, 2014 10:24:55 GMT -5
Yes mp, good stuff. Thanks for sharing!
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