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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 8:04:46 GMT -5
I'm looking for some leadership out of miners the AM to confirm this next leg up. The last two cycles were in the 26-27 day range and I think today is day 28.
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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 8:29:23 GMT -5
I see Avino Silver is doing a financing for 25M to help grow the producer/mine they just purchased. It is down quite a bit in pre-market and I would love to add to my holdings as I believe it is a very well run company.
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Post by sb on Jul 8, 2014 8:32:02 GMT -5
I like that a lot of the newsletter bulls around the internet are nervous due to COT, CRB index breaking down, etc and many that are invested are with only a fraction of what they intend. This is the bull's chance to leave a bunch behind if it's ready to do so. I will also ignore the CRB, not only has it's collapse not dragged gold down yet, but the metal should be perceived as a good place to hide if we continue to get short term whiff of deflation, which is strange b/c the dollar isn't doing anything. So many balls in the air it's becoming easy to confuse those that want to be long, where do they buy>  |
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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 8:35:05 GMT -5
Exactly. A very weak CRB is a perfect set up for gold miners. Most seem to lump them together but miners have always been counter cyclical. Not saying they can't rally on inflation too but the sweet spot is deflation based on my research.
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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 8:36:58 GMT -5
Argonaut is looking strong recently. I expect it to be a mover in the next leg up.
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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 8:49:19 GMT -5
Sounds like Poly is also looking for a nice one day sell off into a DCL. So I don't think the cycles guys are long here.
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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 9:22:58 GMT -5
Shakeout? I think it has to be or perhaps the start of a correction that scares people into not buying it. I just don't think the peeps are going to get what they want.
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Post by sb on Jul 8, 2014 10:28:12 GMT -5
Wonder if the stock markets are finally topping out? I'd like to add to my miners if GDX can go down another couple days, maybe close that gap around $24.80 or so.
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Post by sb on Jul 8, 2014 11:08:04 GMT -5
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Post by daniel on Jul 8, 2014 11:11:31 GMT -5
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Post by platy on Jul 8, 2014 13:23:02 GMT -5
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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 13:26:08 GMT -5
Just for fun, here are some of my favs. Looking at these, it's hard to argue that the bottom isn't in. I'm pretty sure that the holders of these don't consider catching the move off the bottom "irrelevant".  Edit: no I don't own all of these currently, and no I didn't catch the exact bottom in any of these except Balmoral. But I did catch a good part of the increase in several of them! |
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Post by sb on Jul 8, 2014 13:54:53 GMT -5
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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 14:26:54 GMT -5
Jrs aren't really participating in this afternoon's recovery. This has me hesitating....
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Post by sb on Jul 8, 2014 16:06:43 GMT -5
Jrs aren't really participating in this afternoon's recovery. This has me hesitating.... Hesitating to add, or hesitating to sit with what you have? One way to look at it is you have a plan, you've got a bunch and if they go higher you're still in, if they go lower, you get to add. Either outcome is acceptable. Juniors vs. mid-tier, vs large caps will all take their turns, I don't want to get caught chasing what just worked best (juniors in this example), b/c they might not be best in the next push...what's worse is if I'm always getting into the new names after they are due to under-perform relatively speaking. If you're holding some of the names you mentioned earlier, you're sitting in good position and don't want to miss the next time those same names kick into high gear again. |
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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 16:31:26 GMT -5
I was hesitating to add, not to hold what I have. I think I'm probably trying to be too aggressive. Like you say, I should just be adding when things get oversold. I'm also giving my current holdings a wider stop because I think getting stopped out here would be a mistake.
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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 16:37:59 GMT -5
7-0 Germany over Brazil now. Unreal.
I guess I'm rooting for the Argentines now.
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Post by sb on Jul 8, 2014 16:52:31 GMT -5
7-0 Germany over Brazil now. Unreal. I guess I'm rooting for the Argentines now. I'd take Germany, except for the wife. Crazy game, I'm not a soccer fan but had to watch! |
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Post by sb on Jul 8, 2014 16:58:19 GMT -5
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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 17:02:19 GMT -5
Yep, it's a real kick in the nads when they do it. I've been burned more than once. |
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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 17:09:06 GMT -5
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Post by sb on Jul 8, 2014 17:41:54 GMT -5
Yep, it's a real kick in the nads when they do it. I've been burned more than once. I agree, but longer term the situation has changed by the fact they can find buyers. As long as we can see it to the other side and don't get goaded into chasing the latest best name we should be fine. One thing that helps is I try to add to all my miners across the board when I see and average like GDX give me a signal. At any point in time, some individual names are doing better and some worse, but if I try to pick the next specific company I often hurt my overall results. I try to wait until it makes sense to add to all of my names (by watching GDX and GDXJ, or XAU and HUI), then buy some of the losers as well as the winners. I've noticed at times the winning names I've added to perform better short term, other times, the most down names do best. I can't tell how to know which will be best in the next rally so try not to concern myself with it since I can't define a long term edge. |
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Post by sb on Jul 8, 2014 17:52:01 GMT -5
Interesting how Moody's suggests that banks will be worse off stealing Canadians' money, because the the federal gov't "might not necessarily" bail out the banks, when that is all central banks around the world have done already? How about they take deposits, and whatever they are short, then gets printed again. I don't see why they even bother to entertain stealing deposits when they can print all they need, except it makes paper money look limited and valuable, thus keeping the scam alive. Apparently there is an attempt to make credit rating agencies legitimate as well. Moody's is all over this one! |
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Post by simonsays on Jul 8, 2014 18:13:34 GMT -5
Yep, it's a real kick in the nads when they do it. I've been burned more than once. I agree, but longer term the situation has changed by the fact they can find buyers. As long as we can see it to the other side and don't get goaded into chasing the latest best name we should be fine. One thing that helps is I try to add to all my miners across the board when I see and average like GDX give me a signal. At any point in time, some individual names are doing better and some worse, but if I try to pick the next specific company I often hurt my overall results. I try to wait until it makes sense to add to all of my names (by watching GDX and GDXJ, or XAU and HUI), then buy some of the losers as well as the winners. I've noticed at times the winning names I've added to perform better short term, other times, the most down names do best. I can't tell how to know which will be best in the next rally so try not to concern myself with it since I can't define a long term edge. Sage advice I think, as long as we have good fundamental reasons for owning each company. An example as it pertains to your strategy is adding a company like Argonaut, which is fundamentally very solid but has not been rewarded by shareholders at all. |
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Post by sb on Jul 8, 2014 20:01:30 GMT -5
We still haven't broken above that 101.90 on the XAU monthly chart. I'll sleep like a baby once its done, until then it's just chopping around.
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