|
|
Post by simonsays on Jul 9, 2014 8:08:46 GMT -5
Good morning. Crude oil is looking a little oversold. If the inflation theme is to resume, I'm expecting it to put in a bottom over the next couple of days.
Gold looks to be ready for a push higher this AM. If it breaches 1335 I think we'll see some chasing and perhaps a short squeeze. Could still go the other way too.
Equities? I'm guessing the two day sell off is good enough for a bounce today.
|
|
|
|
Post by simonsays on Jul 9, 2014 8:57:17 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by platy on Jul 9, 2014 9:04:10 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by simonsays on Jul 9, 2014 9:16:34 GMT -5
I was reading about this popping of the bubble last night. If this is true, I wonder what the BIS has in store for us. The owner's must now have all the physical they need and are prepared to push for a reset of the system? |
|
|
|
Post by sb on Jul 9, 2014 9:36:37 GMT -5
PSAR buy signal triggered today on $XAU MONTHLY chart, suggesting several months at least of higher prices. No way to tell if it's a sharp rise or just drift higher, but suggesting higher nonetheless, and I think it confirms the bear market has ended: tinyurl.com/kp3dscdHUI should be next.  |
|
|
|
Post by simonsays on Jul 9, 2014 9:44:25 GMT -5
SB, would you expect this to trigger some institutional buying?
Also, new high in GDX on day 29 (I think). So either we're in an extremely long right transalted cycle, or we are in a new cycle. Regardless, we have consolidated and the buying seems to have picked up again.
|
|
|
|
Post by sb on Jul 9, 2014 9:57:26 GMT -5
SB, would you expect this to trigger some institutional buying? Also, new high in GDX on day 29 (I think). So either we're in an extremely long right transalted cycle, or we are in a new cycle. Regardless, we have consolidated and the buying seems to have picked up again. I would think so, we have transitioned to a "buy the dips" scenario on the longer term charts, which is where institutions focus. It's not a timing signal and we'll get gyrations within each month, but it's very likely prices are heading higher and for many months. PS. I'm loving the naysayers around the blog circuit, hope they keep watching from the sidelines.  |
|
|
|
Post by sb on Jul 9, 2014 11:19:31 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by simonsays on Jul 9, 2014 11:36:37 GMT -5
Jesus, he's lost the plot completely. The market doesn't stair step up on his schedule so it's manipulation. What's he waiting for, free markets? I can't believe this one trick pony still has an audience. |
|
|
|
Post by simonsays on Jul 9, 2014 11:53:52 GMT -5
Folks are still quite bearish over at BBT. Meanwhile many jrs look to be in breakout mode.   Glad I don't rely on cycles for my primary trading signals. |
|
|
|
Post by sb on Jul 9, 2014 12:11:27 GMT -5
Have you been keeping up with the comments on your other favorite blog....no believers in sight! Not that it matters b/c I'm holding through the pullbacks anyway, but it's interesting to observe so many bears. Once they turn bullish we'll get a correction, but something tells me even when they admit we're heading higher they still won't have conviction, instead just take shots from the long side here and there. Human nature is interesting, people piling on KWN and laughing at the contributors there, all of which have been far more successful in their investing careers.
Oh well, it's time to be long, get more long on dips, and hold. It's not like they spanked the market from the short side, what makes people believe they will make money once they realize it's a bull...it'll be the same all over again.
|
|
|
|
Post by sb on Jul 9, 2014 12:16:09 GMT -5
Just noticed, I'm finally a Junior Member of the forum....alright!
|
|
|
|
Post by simonsays on Jul 9, 2014 12:37:14 GMT -5
Have you been keeping up with the comments on your other favorite blog....no believers in sight! Not that it matters b/c I'm holding through the pullbacks anyway, but it's interesting to observe so many bears. Once they turn bullish we'll get a correction, but something tells me even when they admit we're heading higher they still won't have conviction, instead just take shots from the long side here and there. Human nature is interesting, people piling on KWN and laughing at the contributors there, all of which have been far more successful in their investing careers. Oh well, it's time to be long, get more long on dips, and hold. It's not like they spanked the market from the short side, what makes people believe they will make money once they realize it's a bull...it'll be the same all over again. You mean Gary's blog? If so, I haven't followed it in a couple of years now. I still read BBT as an indicator of sentiment and because there are a few posters that I really like, although many have started to disappear. I've never understood this dislike for ZH and KWN. Like any news source, examine it with objective eyes. There are some nutters for sure but there are also some highly intelligent and successful (as you say) commentors at those sites. Everyone wants to trade gold it seems, but very few understand its historical monetary significance, treating it as if it's some find of fad like tulips. |
|
pkf
Junior Member
Posts: 52 
|
Post by pkf on Jul 9, 2014 12:48:13 GMT -5
Have you been keeping up with the comments on your other favorite blog....no believers in sight! Not that it matters b/c I'm holding through the pullbacks anyway, but it's interesting to observe so many bears. Once they turn bullish we'll get a correction, but something tells me even when they admit we're heading higher they still won't have conviction, instead just take shots from the long side here and there. Human nature is interesting, people piling on KWN and laughing at the contributors there, all of which have been far more successful in their investing careers. Oh well, it's time to be long, get more long on dips, and hold. It's not like they spanked the market from the short side, what makes people believe they will make money once they realize it's a bull...it'll be the same all over again. Today's investor (and I use the word investor quite loosely) feels the need to "catch the bottom" and/or "top" in order to qualify for being "right". Let's assume that we have indeed turned higher on Pm's. If this is going to play out like ALL other cycles dating back for 40+ years, then even if one waits another 20-25% before he/she commits, there will still be plenty of upside. The notion however of not getting at the bottom and worrying about getting caught in a correction makes them weary of pulling the trigger. Human nature is such that as soon as confidence becomes transparent, the correction will be either on hand or within striking distance. Granted, there are still unresolved issues (at least on my charts) which do not warrant an all-out aggressive stance. On the other hand, there are many (and I really mean MANY) stocks with absolutely wonderful looking weekly charts (these are the charts that really count BTW) and as far as these stocks are concerned, a MAJOR LOW was made back on the week of June 24, 2013. Unless and until these stocks begin to break their up-trend, pullbacks should be bought. By waiting for ABX and GLD and SLV to signal the "all clear" sign, one can be waiting a very long time. I am certain the seniors (GG, ABX, NEM) will join the party (otherwise the key indexes cannot rise) but not so sure (nor does it matter) for GLD and SLV to join the party. I have stated on many occasions that the miners DO NOT NEED the bullion to be rising in order to be in a bull market (the same holds true for GLD vs. the Miners). The miners are so far below "fair value" vs. Gold, that gold may just skip an entire cycle w/out participating wholeheartedly on any upside. SLV, is really a schizo, and has a mind of its own, so it can do its own thing whenever it pleases. |
|
|
|
Post by simonsays on Jul 9, 2014 12:54:09 GMT -5
Well said Pkf. For the purpose of trading, miners and the underlying metals should not be treated as one entity. But I like that they are because it allows this stealth move to continue.
|
|
|
|
Post by simonsays on Jul 9, 2014 12:55:55 GMT -5
Possible gap fill to 26.50ish on GDX on Fed minutes. Just guessing out loud.
|
|
|
|
Post by sb on Jul 9, 2014 13:39:32 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by simonsays on Jul 9, 2014 14:38:21 GMT -5
When I read Rick Rule, I sometimes think I'm reading Ole SB. Same mentality exactly! |
|
|
|
Post by simonsays on Jul 9, 2014 15:01:11 GMT -5
8M shares of GDX in the final 5 mins and close near HOD.
|
|
|
|
Post by brad949 on Jul 9, 2014 15:10:20 GMT -5
Any suggestions on the best place to find the historical price/vol for a specific option contract? All I can find are daily volume, recent price and price range for the day, but I'm trying to get more detail of recent transactions, price and volume.
|
|
|
|
Post by simonsays on Jul 9, 2014 15:19:51 GMT -5
Any suggestions on the best place to find the historical price/vol for a specific option contract? All I can find are daily volume, recent price and price range for the day, but I'm trying to get more detail of recent transactions, price and volume. Sorry Brad, I really have no idea on that one, as I don't trade options. Maybe one of the others can point you in the right direction. |
|
pkf
Junior Member
Posts: 52
|
Post by pkf on Jul 9, 2014 15:22:00 GMT -5
Any suggestions on the best place to find the historical price/vol for a specific option contract? All I can find are daily volume, recent price and price range for the day, but I'm trying to get more detail of recent transactions, price and volume. If you know anyone with a Bloomberg terminal, they may be able to help. |
|
mp
Junior Member
Posts: 77
|
Post by mp on Jul 9, 2014 18:56:50 GMT -5
Good morning. Crude oil is looking a little oversold. If the inflation theme is to resume, I'm expecting it to put in a bottom over the next couple of days. Gold looks to be ready for a push higher this AM. If it breaches 1335 I think we'll see some chasing and perhaps a short squeeze. Could still go the other way too. Equities? I'm guessing the two day sell off is good enough for a bounce today. Crude still has a potential to accelerate to the downside, so be careful of the "oversold" indicator. |
|
|
|
Post by simonsays on Jul 9, 2014 19:22:26 GMT -5
Good morning. Crude oil is looking a little oversold. If the inflation theme is to resume, I'm expecting it to put in a bottom over the next couple of days. Gold looks to be ready for a push higher this AM. If it breaches 1335 I think we'll see some chasing and perhaps a short squeeze. Could still go the other way too. Equities? I'm guessing the two day sell off is good enough for a bounce today. Crude still has a potential to accelerate to the downside, so be careful of the "oversold" indicator. Agreed. Thanks mp. |
|
|
|
Post by simonsays on Jul 9, 2014 19:43:58 GMT -5
likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.comDay 1 for miners according to Likesmoney. A right translated cycle would mean some serious gains for miners in this DC. We could get overbought again in a hurry, so we'll see.....
|
|
