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Post by platy on Jul 16, 2014 8:17:58 GMT -5
Dollar looking overbought short term but on the daily it could go higher. Twiddling thumbs until Monday.
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Post by simonsays on Jul 16, 2014 8:38:45 GMT -5
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Post by platy on Jul 16, 2014 8:40:01 GMT -5
Miners jumped -- is the bear finished or it's just re-testing prior support?
I think this could be leg 4 up before the final leg 5 down to 25.
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Post by platy on Jul 16, 2014 8:47:31 GMT -5
Tex and Poly getting schooled by DG
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Post by simonsays on Jul 16, 2014 8:50:38 GMT -5
Yeah, I'm being cautious here a la SB. I have plenty if we go up from here but not ovesold enough to add. Interestingly, of the miners that I added during the consolidation, none have yet stopped out. That includes Almaden, Alexco, Klondex, New Gold, B2Gold, and Timmins. Not saying they won't get stopped out but the strength over the last two days is notable. If I do get stopped out, I can imagine jumping right back in.
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Post by simonsays on Jul 16, 2014 8:57:08 GMT -5
Tex and Poly getting schooled by DG Yeah, DG has been pounding that drum ever since Poly told him it was completely irrelevant. DG makes a very good case that those large BoW/SoS are statistically significant and as usual when someone makes a strong argument against Poly's opinion, you either get "crickets chirping" or an increasingly incoherent response. |
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Post by sb on Jul 16, 2014 9:12:52 GMT -5
I don't pay much attention to BOW/SOS, mostly because I'm not too concerned about the next day or two of trade. For those that are short term it still would be difficult to use it as a timing tool. What if GDX ends the day down 1%, does BOW/SOS analysis give an edge? And yet, I was happy to see the big BOW number for GDX!  |
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Post by sb on Jul 16, 2014 9:21:19 GMT -5
It also seems that cycles analysis has been rather cloudy the last couple months.
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Post by simonsays on Jul 16, 2014 9:21:46 GMT -5
DG suggests it only works when the number is extremely large. Whether he regulary makes money with it depends on where he sets his stop and how long he holds it. It wouldn't surprise me if he's already out with his 2%. If nothing happened today, I have no idea whether he waits for it to move.....
For me it's just another indicator on the list and like you, I was happy to see such an extreme number yesterday as it lends credence to my view that miners are being accumulated in the medium term. Nothing more really.
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Post by platy on Jul 16, 2014 9:26:49 GMT -5
Today is a major Bradley turn date.
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Post by simonsays on Jul 16, 2014 9:31:32 GMT -5
I think trading cycles is ineffective unless there's a clear bull or bear trend. And even then it depends on whether a person is willing to toss their bias' aside and trade the chart. I haven't seen any cycles newsletter guys do that. In fact, it seems that most cycles guys have lost money since gold topped. The run in equities has been missed entirely, except for very recently, which I tend to perceive as a topping signal.
I think Tex may be trading cycles effectively but I'll be interested to see how he does when things go against his fundamental bias. He beleives the recovery is real and is sound. I believe trading against one's bias is extremely difficult for most, despite what they say.....
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Post by daniel on Jul 16, 2014 10:35:08 GMT -5
I think trading cycles is ineffective unless there's a clear bull or bear trend. And even then it depends on whether a person is willing to toss their bias' aside and trade the chart. I haven't seen any cycles newsletter guys do that. In fact, it seems that most cycles guys have lost money since gold topped. The run in equities has been missed entirely, except for very recently, which I tend to perceive as a topping signal. I think Tex may be trading cycles effectively but I'll be interested to see how he does when things go against his fundamental bias. He beleives the recovery is real and is sound. I believe trading against one's bias is extremely difficult for most, despite what they say..... Pretty spot on! I think trading cycles when the bull or bear trend is not established requires much more effective short term trading! Not my forte at all! I am more along the lines of ole SB... buy and hold and let the price catch up to fundamentals! Can be painful but the tortoise wins the race in the end!! I HOPE! |
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Post by simonsays on Jul 16, 2014 11:03:17 GMT -5
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Post by simonsays on Jul 16, 2014 11:07:41 GMT -5
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Post by sb on Jul 16, 2014 11:52:51 GMT -5
More hints of deflation, this time in Canada?
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Post by simonsays on Jul 16, 2014 12:05:55 GMT -5
More hints of deflation, this time in Canada? I think we're going to get stagflation, followed by flat out deflation when everything crashes. Prices of energy, food, and housing are rising here but wages are not, and GDP growth is pathetic outside of AB and Sask. This has to crash and with interest rates already near zero there's little that can be done to offset it. The next recession in Canada will be more like a depression imo. I give it two more years max. |
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Post by platy on Jul 16, 2014 12:59:25 GMT -5
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Post by sb on Jul 16, 2014 14:23:44 GMT -5
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Post by daniel on Jul 16, 2014 14:49:57 GMT -5
Thanks sb....... Rick Rule has a BRILLIANT mind !!! Enjoy listening to and reading his stuff! |
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Post by platy on Jul 16, 2014 19:46:02 GMT -5
Traveling next 2 days. Somebody else will have to start the threads. |
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Post by simonsays on Jul 17, 2014 0:05:04 GMT -5
Traveling next 2 days. Somebody else will have to start the threads. Nooooo!!! Kidding. Safe travels Platy. |
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