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Post by platy on Jul 31, 2014 8:18:50 GMT -5
Stopped out break even on gold. Hadik's ideal time for a low is between now and Monday. Hopefully we get that gap fill.
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Post by daniel on Jul 31, 2014 9:11:57 GMT -5
Stopped out break even on gold. Hadik's ideal time for a low is between now and Monday. Hopefully we get that gap fill. Platy.....please refresh my memory......Hadik is who? I remember you mentioning one person you respect quite a lot in your niche of investing? Was it Hadik? Thank you much!! |
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Post by platy on Jul 31, 2014 9:23:26 GMT -5
Eric Hadik who publishes Inside Track. He uses fixed cycles (especially Biblical cycles) heavily.
He is basing that on the 60-day cycle. Notice how near the 1st of every other month has been a major low for the past year or so.
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Post by platy on Jul 31, 2014 9:33:44 GMT -5
Come on SLV give me 19!
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Post by platy on Jul 31, 2014 9:46:07 GMT -5
S&P broke a very important trendline. I'm hearing late August low from a few places.
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Post by simonsays on Jul 31, 2014 9:49:15 GMT -5
I've been working on a system that I call the "natural selection portfolio". This is a system that selects stocks, etfs, etc, based purely on emerging and established trends. Among other things, the system only allows you to trade stocks that are in trends above their 30 WMA. If a stock moves above the average and acts predictably, it can be added to the portfolio. If the trend fails, it's dumped. This way the portfolio will only hold strong trending stocks. I'm still working on the exact buy and sell signals. The market must be scanned regularly to identify stocks that newly fit the criteria and can be added. This way, the portfolio does not wait on specific stocks, rather it chooses only those stocks that exhibit the desirable characteristics. The porfolio can go long or short any sector in an effort to remove the correlation that often occurs during market wide sell offs. It's nothing fancy but it really seems to work well.
I'm still refining and testing the system, but if one was following it right now, the following gold stocks would be part of the portfolio:
Asanko, Avino, Balmoral, Bear Creek, Detour, Franco Nevada, Great Panther, Klondex, Lake Shore, Lydian, Oceana, Primero, Premier, Pretivum, Royal Gold, Roxgold, Semafo, Sandstorm, Terraco, and Timmins.
Regardless of what GDX or GLD are doing, these stocks are all in well established bull markets. Others are close and can be added to the portfolio but not before they prove themselves. There will be no "hoping and waiting" in this portfolio. I think this lends credence to what pkf was saying the other day about picking stocks. Some will never enter a bull market and some will only at the end (like SB says). This system is designed to catch the stocks and etfs when it is their time. I've been doing an etf (long and short) version since last October and it has performed admirably. Still refining it but so far I like what I'm seeing.
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Post by platy on Jul 31, 2014 9:51:13 GMT -5
That's fantastic simon!
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Post by sb on Jul 31, 2014 9:51:40 GMT -5
G-Savage stops kicked in, and everybody jumping ship on me. I MUST......HOLD....ON!  I'd like it better if this were occurring down around the $25 level on GDX, being the generals stock market looks to be making it's top (at least today). Sticking with my plan and looking to nibble of more miners, maybe start a little about $25, like $25.50 or so. To me, this is all noise. I hope I'm right! |
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pkf
Junior Member
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Post by pkf on Jul 31, 2014 9:59:24 GMT -5
I've been working on a system that I call the "natural selection portfolio". This is a system that selects stocks, etfs, etc, based purely on emerging and established trends. Among other things, the system only allows you to trade stocks that are in trends above their 30 WMA. If a stock moves above the average and acts predictably, it can be added to the portfolio. If the trend fails, it's dumped. This way the portfolio will only hold strong trending stocks. I'm still working on the exact buy and sell signals. The market must be scanned regularly to identify stocks that newly fit the criteria and can be added. This way, the portfolio does not wait on specific stocks, rather it chooses only those stocks that exhibit the desirable characteristics. The porfolio can go long or short any sector in an effort to remove the correlation that often occurs during market wide sell offs. It's nothing fancy but it really seems to work well. I'm still refining and testing the system, but if one was following it right now, the following gold stocks would be part of the portfolio: Asanko, Avino, Balmoral, Bear Creek, Detour, Franco Nevada, Great Panther, Klondex, Lake Shore, Lydian, Oceana, Primero, Premier, Pretivum, Royal Gold, Roxgold, Semafo, Sandstorm, Terraco, and Timmins. Regardless of what GDX or GLD are doing, these stocks are all in well established bull markets. Others are close and can be added to the portfolio but not before they prove themselves. There will be no "hoping and waiting" in this portfolio. I think this lends credence to what pkf was saying the other day about picking stocks. Some will never enter a bull market and some will only at the end (like SB says). This system is designed to catch the stocks and etfs when it is their time. I've been doing an etf (long and short) version since last October and it has performed admirably. Still refining it but so far I like what I'm seeing. excellent work; keep us posted on your findings and maybe set up a table where you can list WHEN the stock makes the list and WHEN it gets thrown out. With so many names, one can easily diversify away risk by taking 6-10 plays and not worry. If I may ask, is your selection criteria based off of daily or weekly charts? I ask this because if you are using the daily charts you can also use the weeklies and you may get a different set of stocks or possibly act as confirmation to the dailies. Just an idea. |
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Post by simonsays on Jul 31, 2014 10:12:22 GMT -5
excellent work; keep us posted on your findings and maybe set up a table where you can list WHEN the stock makes the list and WHEN it gets thrown out. With so many names, one can easily diversify away risk by taking 6-10 plays and not worry. If I may ask, is your selection criteria based off of daily or weekly charts? I ask this because if you are using the daily charts you can also use the weeklies and you may get a different set of stocks or possibly act as confirmation to the dailies. Just an idea. The system could be applied to any time frame. In fact an aggressive trader would initially apply it to a shorter timeframe (hourly or even shorter perhaps) and then work up to longer timeframes as the trend becomes established. I'm using the weeklies right now because my reading and testing suggests that the system will perform better (but with more risk) on a longer timeframe (shorter time frames will get whipped in and out more often). Plus there are enough established trends out there (in miners but more so in other sectors) that there is no need (in my view) to focus on shorter timeframes. That said, I was extremely aggressive on shorter timeframes with miners because I wanted to catch the bottom). This perhaps shows my obvious bias towards the sector (something I'm working on). If the market got extremely choppy, there would be a need to go to shorter timeframes or just sit in cash. Anyway, I will keep you guys posted... |
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Post by simonsays on Jul 31, 2014 10:20:31 GMT -5
If there are any gamblers out there, the action in MIdway Gold suggests something good is about to be announced. They are due to update their Spring Valley resource estimate around this time. Interestingly, Terraco Gold (located next door and holding a royalty on the MDW property) has also been showing strength. Just a fyi, could also be my wishful thinking!
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Post by MoonCow on Jul 31, 2014 10:20:49 GMT -5
simon, nice work ... chaos is the market's way of obscuring trends, so if you can filter it out and find the trends, excellent stuff. Interesting that some particular names are trending so well when the indices can't get out of their own way.
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pkf
Junior Member
Posts: 52
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Post by pkf on Jul 31, 2014 10:32:13 GMT -5
If there are any gamblers out there, the action in MIdway Gold suggests something good is about to be announced. They are due to update their Spring Valley resource estimate around this time. Interestingly, Terraco Gold (located next door and holding a royalty on the MDW property) has also been showing strength. Just a fyi, could also be my wishful thinking! very nice weekly chart on Midway. Incredibly great risk/reward ratio here. |
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Post by sb on Jul 31, 2014 10:33:48 GMT -5
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Post by platy on Jul 31, 2014 11:27:18 GMT -5
My next gold turn date is August 8 and I'm seeing some other people calling for a low on that date FWIW.
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Post by daniel on Jul 31, 2014 11:37:36 GMT -5
Eric Hadik who publishes Inside Track. He uses fixed cycles (especially Biblical cycles) heavily. He is basing that on the 60-day cycle. Notice how near the 1st of every other month has been a major low for the past year or so. Have his calls been pretty accurate and/or are his dates (approximate....like the turn here but can be a few days early or late) THANKS |
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Post by platy on Jul 31, 2014 11:43:04 GMT -5
Eric Hadik who publishes Inside Track. He uses fixed cycles (especially Biblical cycles) heavily. He is basing that on the 60-day cycle. Notice how near the 1st of every other month has been a major low for the past year or so. Have his calls been pretty accurate and/or are his dates (approximate....like the turn here but can be a few days early or late) THANKS He is good but because he relies on fixed turn dates he can be off. I like him because I try to match my turn dates with his, and also because he gives direction which I can't do. |
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pkf
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Post by pkf on Jul 31, 2014 11:54:11 GMT -5
Folks, keep your eyes on the JUN 26th $HUI low @ 231.43. If we break this level we can lose altitude pretty quickly.
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Post by brad949 on Jul 31, 2014 13:18:15 GMT -5
Eric Hadik who publishes Inside Track. He uses fixed cycles (especially Biblical cycles) heavily. He is basing that on the 60-day cycle. Notice how near the 1st of every other month has been a major low for the past year or so. Have his calls been pretty accurate and/or are his dates (approximate....like the turn here but can be a few days early or late) THANKS I follow Hadik as well. He has been calling for a +-5% correction in stocks in first half of August and the final top in Oct/Nov. |
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Post by brad949 on Jul 31, 2014 13:21:54 GMT -5
G-Savage stops kicked in, and everybody jumping ship on me. I MUST......HOLD....ON! I'd like it better if this were occurring down around the $25 level on GDX, being the generals stock market looks to be making it's top (at least today). Sticking with my plan and looking to nibble of more miners, maybe start a little about $25, like $25.50 or so. To me, this is all noise. I hope I'm right! Didn't he have a public post just a week ago telling everyone that he had gotten everybody in at the start of the PM bull and that most would not profit from it because they would constantly trade in and out, buying highs and selling lows? Anybody else remember that? |
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Post by platy on Jul 31, 2014 13:24:05 GMT -5
Yes I remember that.
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Post by platy on Jul 31, 2014 15:47:06 GMT -5
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Post by sb on Jul 31, 2014 15:56:38 GMT -5
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