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Post by simonsays on Sept 8, 2014 9:56:22 GMT -5
Slow....grind....to.....death....for.....miners....
just at when a guy thinks it's safe to start accumulating.
i'm not much for predictions but I think this sell off "may" be preceding a more substantial market correction.
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Post by sb on Sept 8, 2014 10:39:57 GMT -5
I was filled on buy orders Friday, and am tempted to swap a few more dollars for miners here today again. As painful as the pullbacks can be, these declines are times to be interested.
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Post by sb on Sept 8, 2014 11:09:14 GMT -5
We have now pulled back 50% from the run in XAU that started at the December low back around the 80 level. I'm not sure what the next few days will bring, but from a longer term perspective this area would be a good area to find some support if miners are going to turn around. Combined that with the fact XAU is also probing it's 200 MA, I've decided to put in the extra buy orders to nibble across the board.
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Post by sb on Sept 8, 2014 11:30:51 GMT -5
And if miners don't start to turn it around in this area and over the next few days to a week, then we're probably going back to the lows again. Have to call it like I see it. Buys filled, now I'm done buying into this pullback. Let's see how they rally once (and if) they ever start.  |
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Post by sb on Sept 8, 2014 13:15:58 GMT -5
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Post by simonsays on Sept 8, 2014 13:37:46 GMT -5
Jordan is one of the best contrary indicators out there. He loads up at the top and shorts at the bottom. But when I hear him say "one last low" it makes me nervous. He's called the final low a few times already. I must admit, this is the most bearish I've felt since 2013.
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pkf
Junior Member
Posts: 52 
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Post by pkf on Sept 8, 2014 13:49:01 GMT -5
as long as the XAU holds the May lows, we're okay. The 90-92 zone still looks like a good area for a low with a stretch down to 87-88. Below that, I will be making an appointment with my cardiologist
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pkf
Junior Member
Posts: 52
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Post by pkf on Sept 8, 2014 14:19:17 GMT -5
I suspect if we close around current levels, a down open tomorrow can be the catalyst for the first rally, the one I expect to fail. It will be the next round of new lows which I expect to be the final piece of the puzzle. Anything below the May lows (via XAU) and I am out quickly of any and all ETFs while re-assessing my individual stock positions.
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Post by sb on Sept 8, 2014 14:21:02 GMT -5
I don't mind us heading down to XAU 88 if that's where we're going, but I would like to see it take a little while to get there rather than straight down like it's been doing. |
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pkf
Junior Member
Posts: 52
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Post by pkf on Sept 8, 2014 14:31:46 GMT -5
I don't mind us heading down to XAU 88 if that's where we're going, but I would like to see it take a little while to get there rather than straight down like it's been doing. The miners are notorious for their schizophrenic behavior, therefore always expect the unexpected. As well, keep in mind that this group is far more likely to bottom in a "panic" mode and if we do fall apart here and get down to 88 over the next couple of days, it will STILL BE ABOVE SUPPORT; this can easily produce a long lasting low. All of this is of course speculation and I always approach the market knowing exactly what I want to do at a given point in price. If/when the conditions I am waiting for appear, I act; if not, I look elsewhere. |
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pkf
Junior Member
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Post by pkf on Sept 8, 2014 14:33:48 GMT -5
IMO, buying at XAU 88 with a risk of 5 XAU points vs a gain of 40-50 XAU points (minimum) is really all one can ask for. We are after-all in a game that requires some risk-taking. Once this risk is measured and controlled, the trigger must be pulled.
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Post by sb on Sept 8, 2014 15:39:39 GMT -5
I'm not much for trendlines, but will point out that the one connecting the December low to the June low extends out to the $23 level on GDX. If this is to be tested it suggests another buck and change to the downside.
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pkf
Junior Member
Posts: 52
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Post by pkf on Sept 8, 2014 16:22:25 GMT -5
I'm not much for trendlines, but will point out that the one connecting the December low to the June low extends out to the $23 level on GDX. If this is to be tested it suggests another buck and change to the downside. Although they don't move dollar for dollar, $23 GDX equates to approx. 88 on the XAU; coincidence? |
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Post by daniel on Sept 8, 2014 16:22:48 GMT -5
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