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Post by daniel on Sept 24, 2014 13:44:40 GMT -5
Seems like we are getting close to a longer lasting bottom here. I keep remembering Rick Rule that this bottom is going to take a while and be messy...but it is a bottom!
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Post by daniel on Sept 24, 2014 14:33:44 GMT -5
OIL back and forth a volatile bottoming process?, or just a violent consolidation before the fall??
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Post by simonsays on Sept 25, 2014 8:32:04 GMT -5
I don't mean to be absent. I've just been very busy with a new project.
Metals and miners look very weak (thanks captain obvious)! Sentiment has to be at the lowest in decades. I know personally, I have no interest in the sector. Things can change in a hurry but I'm starting to buy into the notion that a lasting bottom will occur when half the companies listed on the Venture exchange are gone. I think the easiest way for big money to acquire gold is to first run companies out of cash. Perhaps that is what we are seeing. In the meantime, there are other sectors to gamble on and with central banks in the equity game now, it's pretty hard to bet against them.
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Post by daniel on Sept 25, 2014 18:55:01 GMT -5
I don't mean to be absent. I've just been very busy with a new project. Metals and miners look very weak (thanks captain obvious)! Sentiment has to be at the lowest in decades. I know personally, I have no interest in the sector. Things can change in a hurry but I'm starting to buy into the notion that a lasting bottom will occur when half the companies listed on the Venture exchange are gone. I think the easiest way for big money to acquire gold is to first run companies out of cash. Perhaps that is what we are seeing. In the meantime, there are other sectors to gamble on and with central banks in the equity game now, it's pretty hard to bet against them. how is your project going?  |
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Post by simonsays on Sept 25, 2014 20:16:26 GMT -5
I don't mean to be absent. I've just been very busy with a new project. Metals and miners look very weak (thanks captain obvious)! Sentiment has to be at the lowest in decades. I know personally, I have no interest in the sector. Things can change in a hurry but I'm starting to buy into the notion that a lasting bottom will occur when half the companies listed on the Venture exchange are gone. I think the easiest way for big money to acquire gold is to first run companies out of cash. Perhaps that is what we are seeing. In the meantime, there are other sectors to gamble on and with central banks in the equity game now, it's pretty hard to bet against them. how is your project going? It's going good. This is not my backtesting stuff that I had been referring to previously but rather an investment not related to the stock market. Interestingly, the GDX buy signal that was generated in May has not yet been negated. It feels like a lot of downside has occurred but because this is a long term signal, it doesn't negate easily. We're actually only a dollar below where the signal was initially generated. When I look at the bigger picture, it is not nearly as bearish as the last few weeks feels. This is still very much within the realm of a normal long term bottom, despite the current pain. The extreme bearish sentiment is a huge plus. |
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Post by simonsays on Sept 26, 2014 9:20:53 GMT -5
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Post by simonsays on Oct 2, 2014 9:14:55 GMT -5
Looks like we're dying here. For my part, it has been a health issue that has kept me busier than normal as well as a new investment. I will still post here although likely not as frequently as I had been. But I probably won't post at all if the participation is as low as it has been. Perhaps everyone feels the same way. Anyway let me know if you have any use for this discussion board any more. If you do, I'll keep it open and maybe it can be rejuvenated. If not, I'll likely shut it down. I should add that there's no cost to keeping it running.
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Post by sb on Oct 2, 2014 11:13:16 GMT -5
Well, I suppose we could always pick up the forum again in a year or two when it looks like miners have finally bottomed.
Nothing good to say about this pullback, in fact it was deep enough to trigger a PSAR sell signal again, something I did not expect on the monthly $XAU chart. This suggests we'll go sideways at best for a long time, and maybe lower. Still, I have continued to nibble all the way down here. With today's break of the PSAR though, it's my last time adding for awhile so no need to watch every day. I will wait until a bull resumes no matter how long it takes, but to be honest I do truly feel it will seem like forever now that the damage has put us back near the lows. We'll get sharp rallies here and there and maybe even see one soon, but I would not expect a long time uptrend (bull market) in the near future. Gold can trade differently from other commodities, but even the $CRB is suggesting strong deflation around the corner.
Hope you're feeling better with your health Simon, and good luck with your new venture. There will be plenty of time for us to get pumped up about a metals bull again, for now it's dead. About the only good thing that can be said is we (or I) was worse off last December than now, since we still haven't broken the lows. At this point I will not consider selling stocks that have already lost 70-85% from the 2011 highs, so nothing to do but wait patiently.
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Post by sb on Oct 2, 2014 11:15:47 GMT -5
Almost forgot to show the XAU chart with the new PSAR sell triggered, here it is: tinyurl.com/kxwsbt2Not good at all. Unfortunately, I did some adding today before I noticed the chart. |
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Post by simonsays on Oct 2, 2014 11:53:36 GMT -5
SB, can you explain how the PSAR signal works?
Wrt to the board, I guess we can just keep using it as we see fit, even if it is very infrequently. No harm in keeping it functional.
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Post by sb on Oct 2, 2014 12:27:31 GMT -5
It suggests a trend reversal when a new direction prints, or continuation if same direction as prior prints. I'll let stockcharts explain it better: stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:parabolic_sarI don't put too much weight in any one indicator, rather I just see what has been reliable over time, which is one reason I am most concerned with longer term charts, they give lots of wiggle room for random occurrences typically without changing the overall signal. In other words, it's harder to trigger on a longer term chart so I feel longer term is most predictable. In any case, it didn't work this time. In the above chart I can only see one time (2005) where the XAU came back down to trigger the PSAR sell only to reverse higher soon after. Strangely, it was a rip-roaring rally in that situation taking the XAU from 80 (where we are today) up to 160. Seems like every other time the sell signal triggered, we had more downside and for some time, so not hanging my hat on the 2005 outlier. |
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Post by sb on Oct 2, 2014 12:29:18 GMT -5
The 2005 doubling in XAU occurred over 9 months. Odd that it was also from today's level...hmmm.
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Post by sb on Oct 2, 2014 12:34:58 GMT -5
With regard to the forum, I'd leave it up if it isn't too much trouble. People can check in when they have something to note or something changes, like I did today. Other than that, I'm trying to keep away from the day to day calls (or minute to minute).
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Post by sb on Oct 2, 2014 13:03:37 GMT -5
Before I sign off for the day, I just noticed something similar that also happened in 1993. The PSAR buy was only valid for a few months (like we just had) before reversed to a sell again (like today), only to turn up again and bring the XAU from 66 to 129 (95% gain) over the next 8 months.
I'm not getting my hopes up, but perhaps these are the sentiment and dejection levels from which the sharpest rallies occur? Who knows.
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Post by simonsays on Oct 2, 2014 15:10:22 GMT -5
Before I sign off for the day, I just noticed something similar that also happened in 1993. The PSAR buy was only valid for a few months (like we just had) before reversed to a sell again (like today), only to turn up again and bring the XAU from 66 to 129 (95% gain) over the next 8 months. I'm not getting my hopes up, but perhaps these are the sentiment and dejection levels from which the sharpest rallies occur? Who knows. Well, not sure if it helps, but my long term system has not generated a sell signal yet, and even if it did, it would be a huge outlier to then have a significant sell off without a large rally first. So my system would expect the signal to be reversed in the not too distant future. I will leave the site up. No problem. Glad to hear from you again SB. |
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pkf
Junior Member
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Post by pkf on Oct 2, 2014 18:50:24 GMT -5
First on the site, I also have not checked in due to the lack of commentary here. If there are no costs in maintaining the site Simonsays, I suggest you leave it open and see how it goes. It definitely needs more participation from more participants. I like the fact that there are no "taboo" topics here whether one agrees or disagrees.
With regards to miners, I'm with SB here and feel a definite disappointment with the price action. I had mentioned the 88 level on the XAU as being "solid" but it proved to be nothing as it didnt even provide a "tease". New lows appear forthcoming although how low I cannot say here. I have nothing here suggesting upside (except of course sentiment but buying "sentiment" is asking for trouble). I think the best policy here is to wait and get another low risk entry or the BEST WAY, but requires leaving a lot on the table, is to wait for a clear chart breakout. The profits under such a scenario may not be as large but the probabilities towards A PROFIT will be dramatically higher. As of TODAY, my clear level breakout on the XAU stands @ 115.21 with 107.39 getting some look-over.
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Post by sb on Oct 8, 2014 14:47:26 GMT -5
Could it have been a false breakdown of the double bottom in XAU going back to 2008? Let's watch!
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Post by sb on Oct 8, 2014 15:19:05 GMT -5
I'm not going to get excited because it's been a long drag for awhile now, but whatever you do, don't peek at the volume on GDX today, it'll pop your eyeballs out. |
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